Cribbage discard pro12/22/2023 ![]() ![]() Eliminating 4, 5, 6, 7, and 9 as a response doesn't leave as many options, so dealer is more likely to respond with a 10 count card. ![]() The data doesn't say why the players are doing that, but my personal feeling is that the 4 and 5 are scary because pone could turn them into a run 6 is scary because pone could score 15 for 4 if she has a 6 7 is scary because pone could score 15 for 2 if she has a 5 and 9 is scary because pone could score 15 for 2 if she has a pair of 3s. Why is that? Well, dealers are less likely to respond to a 3 lead with a 4, 5, 6, 7, or 9 than they are with a 2 lead. In those cases dealer plays a 10 card 34.6% of the time on the 3 lead vs. I looked specifically at the case where pone is holding 2-3-10-10 (or any two 10-count cards instead of the 10). The 3 lead actually gets a 10-value response a little more often than the 2 lead.
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